Vladimir Putin’s reign could be over ‘within the next year’, an ex-MI6 spy predicts

Speculations about Vladimir Putin’s departure from his top job intensified ever since he decided to launch his full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Rumours about his health have recently re-emerged following an embarrassing blunder.

Insiders also claimed that the inner circle was keen to remove Mr Presidentdue to his failures and the overall war fatigue amongst the elite in both Moscow and St. Petersburg.

On top of that, a paramilitary group Legion Russiahas vowed to take him down at any cost.

While even the closest allies seem to have left him, the military experts have revealed the truth about the broken chain of command in the Russian Army where continuous insubordination was likely to lead to Vladimir Putin’s ‘house of cards’ collapsing any moment.

A British Intelligence heavyweight who has been responsible for the Russia desk for several years lined up five scenarios - some more realistic than others - that each could bring the end to Putin ‘absolutist style’ era as soon as ‘within a year’.

Here is what we know about the source

Christopher Steele is the ex-MI6 spy who ran the Russia desk in the British Intelligence London headquarters between 2006 and 2009.

He was the one who penned a dossier on Donald Trump and Russian interference in the US election.

Steele believes that Vladimir Putin’s absolute power has given a crack following the aborted Wagner coup and that the end of his rule is likely to come ‘within the next year’.

He urged the West to ‘prepare for the end of the ‘Putin era’ and offered five likely scenarios of Mr President’s finale.

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Scenario 1: Putin ‘could die suddenly’ or get assassinated

According to Steele, ‘very credible sources' revealed that Vladimir Putin 'has been ill for some time', suggesting he could ‘die suddenly’.

The ex-spy says thatthe assassination by his inner circle or a ‘by plot from outside of Russia’ can’t be ruled out either.

Steele believes that the latter would be the worst scenario for the West as ‘all bets would be off’ due to the risk of power-dividing bloodshed inside Russia.

He also said that FSB director Alexander Bortnikov could be a likely successor in this case.

Scenario 2: Putin could be ousted by the inner circle due to the Ukraine war failure

As the ‘special military operation’ in Ukraine turned from a ‘parade in Kyiv within three days’ into a devastating 1.5-year-long conflict, the Western sanctions, isolation and a blow to the Russian economy angered the rich and powerful.

Steele thinks that the most likely scenario will see the powerful Russian elite ‘kill or topple Putin in favour of another securocrat or regime oligarch’ who has distanced themselves from the war and is prepared to negotiate with the West.

Steele names ‘rising star’ Aleksey Dyumin, the governor of Tula region, oligarch Igor Sechin, nicknamed 'Darth Vader', and former Russian prime minister Viktor Zubkov as potential successors.

Scenario 3: Putin endorses a successor and leaves

Some experts believe that Vladimir Putin has already launched his 2024 Presidential as he became a lot more sociable with his electorate. The latter change even sparked speculations he was using body doubles for this purpose.

But Steele doesn’t exclude the scenario where the Kremlin leader could reconsider another term following the embarrassing losses in Ukraine and peacefully appoint a replacement in exchange for his and his family’s immunity from further prosecutions.

The ex-spy named potential successors: Dmitry Patrushev, son of the Russian Security Council secretary, and Aleksey Dyumin.

The continuity candidate would mean ‘little or no change to the war in Ukraine’.

Scenario 4: Russian Army could seize the power

The speculations about the possible military coup in Russia are not new, and the world had a brief preview of how it could look like when disillusioned by the Russian Army top brass warlord Yevgeny Prigozhinthreatened to march on the Kremlin earlier this summer.

Steele thinks that this scenario would mean ‘no change to the war or Russian foreign policy’ but could result in a transitional regime with a figure such as General Surovikin who has reportedly been detained following the failed Wagner coup.

Scenario 5: Putin could be removed by a popular uprising

Although this scenario that Putin can be ousted by the uprising is less likely due to Russia’s draconian anti-protest law, the nation that saw several bloody revolutions in the last century could still surprise the world.

Steele believes that the likes of Yevgeny Prigozhin or Alexei Navalny could lead the crowds.

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Sources used:

- Sky News: 'Putin could be out of power within a year, says ex-British spy - here's how'