Vladimir Putin's chain of command is at risk as he faces another problem within regime

The Institute for the Study of War believes that Russia’s broken chain of command, low morale and overall incompetence are set to undermine the Kremlin's war effort and are unlikely to give Vladimir Putin the victory he craves.

The organisation named insubordination displayed by Russia's military, the ineffective command structures and a lack of trust or transparency as Kremlin regime's weak points that are built-in to Vladimir Putin’s archaic management style and are unlikely to improve anytime soon.

The Russian President’s desperation to control everything and eliminate anyone who disagrees with himeven if they could help him win the war, sparks criticism amongst even the most loyal of his supporters, making the political outcome of the war for Vladimir Putin’s regime very unclear.

Meanwhile, he could be facing another revolt as a paramilitary organisation vowed to free Russia and take its leader down.

Low support for Vladimir Putin’s game of chess on Ukraine’s frontline

ISW revealed that Russian military bloggers weren’t impressed by Vladimir Putin's dismissal of 58th Combined Arms Army Commander Colonel General Ivan Popov on Sunday.

Only last week Popov broke the chain of command and dared to complain about the frontline conditions directly to the President, having skipped the powerful duo that allegedly got Yevgeny Prigozhin’s head on the pike - Russian Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov and Russian Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu.

Other reported dismissals for speaking up for their troops include 106th Guards Airborne (VDV) Division Commander Major General Vladimir Seliverstov, 7th VDV Division Commander Major General Alexander Kornev and 90th Tank Division Commander Major General Ramil Ibatullin.

According to ISW, it was Colonel General Mikhail Teplinsky who ‘set the precedent for the acts of insubordination that are currently plaguing the Russian Ministry of Defense’ as he resigned following a dispute with Gerasimov over the use of VDV forces in human wave attacks which resulted in high losses in January.

The resignation itself wouldn't count as an act of insubordination if only upon departure he didn’t release a video targeting Gerasimov’s incompetence.

Loyal troops from the 7th VDV Division threatened to withdraw from occupied Kherson Oblast if Teplinsky was to be arrested - a daring act that showed how ‘insubordination among commanders’ started to spread to some of their soldiers.

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The insubordination trend is set by Putin himself, ISW believes

The organisation added that Vladimir Putin’s desperation to win the war at any cost makes any progressive thinking in the army impossible.

Constraints on Russian mobilisation and persistent incompetence of Moscow-based top brass - the trait Yevgeny Prigozhin repeatedly criticised in his heated video messages - also complicate things.

ISW pointed out the fact that Vladimir Putin consistently undermined his generals in a bid to secure quick winsand electoral support and hence degraded Shoigu and Gerasimov's authority himself.

The ‘crippled’ way of leading the war which is criticised not only by Western experts but also by military bloggers inside Russia may lead to unexpected results.

It may simply demoralise Putin’s meticulously-built war effort amongst both the military and their families and millions of apolitical Russians.

Soldiers will stop obeying their commanders’ orders while generals will oppose the Ministry of Defense, leading to bigger losses and ultimately Russia’s inability to carry on with their devastating war.

One of the Russian military bloggers with extensive insider knowledge of war has already hinted that Putin’s inner circle wanted him out amid the continuous ‘avoidable’ bloodshed in Ukraine.

And Yevgeny Prigozhin’s mutiny, although it looked failed, succeeded in demonstrating that the Kremlin master’s power was not absolute and that in the country swayed by international isolation and war fatigue, anything is possible.

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Sources used:

- Newsweek: 'Putin Making Military Changes As Troops Disobey Orders'