Vladimir Putin's former ally believes he will avoid being overthrown by using this tactic

Abbas Gallyamov, Vladimir Putin’s former speechwriter, is confident that the Russian President will step back from power this year and name his successor, rather than risk being overthrown.

Military disaster

Gallyamov, speaking to the Youtube channel Khodorkovsky Live, said that Russia is facing a military disaster in Ukraine. That is why Putin will step back this year and name his successor, Daily Mail reports.

According to Gallyamov, Russia has been facing defeat after defeat and devastating losses. This has caused Putin’s popularity to plummet and he is no longer seen as a figure who guarantees stability:

The apparatus looks at Prigozhin and stops seeing Putin as guarantor of their stability.

With the likely fall ofPutin, Gallyamov believes the Russian elites are fearing the rise of Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of the Wagner mercenary group:

The whole apparatus sits in horror, looking at Prigozhin and being scared that [his forces] will come after them. They personally fear his sledgehammer.

Prigozhin has on multiple occasions threatened the Russian elites who do not support the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

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Possible successors

Russians will go to the polls to vote for a new president in 2024, and Gallyamov is confident Putin will not run for re-election because he will likely lose, Marca reports.

According to him, Putin already has three likely candidates to succeed him, namely, Sergey Sobyanin, Mayor of Moscow; Mikhail Mishustin, Prime Minister, and Dmitry Kozak, current Deputy Chief of Staff.

Gallyamov saysPutin will nominate a successor, who will negotiate with Ukraine and the West an end to the war:

These people can really win the elections. They will have to negotiate with Ukraine, with the West and break the deadlock within the system.

Gallyamov also believes that Putin prefers a quiet retirement as opposed to being overthrown or eliminated like the examples of the former leaders of Romania and Libya:

For Putin, this is a good option, compared to Ceausescu or Gaddafi. At least Putin will have personal security guarantees.

Sources used:

-Daily Mail: ‘Putin 'will nominate his chosen heir this year rather than risk being toppled' as Russia's military disaster sees his popularity plummet, former ally says’

-Marca: ‘Putin will leave office this year and appoint his successor to negotiate an end to the war, his former speechwriter says’

-Newsweek: 'Putin's Planning for Retirement, Has Eyes on 3 Successors: Ex-Speechwriter'