Vladimir Putin: Leaked document seemingly reveals Kremlin’s fear Russia is going to lose war

A copy of the Kremlin’s new guidelines for Russia’s propaganda media has been leaked, with Russian independent news website, Meduza, claiming to have obtained a copy.

The document reportedly contains instructions on how pro-Kremlin news outlets should report on Ukraine’s upcoming spring counteroffensive.

Leaked document seemingly preparing Russian media for loss

In the document, the Russian officials tell the media 'not to downplay expectations for the NATO-supported counteroffensive that Ukraine has announced', and not to declare that 'Kyiv is unprepared for a 'counteroffensive'.'

Conversely, the manual says pro-government outlets should highlight that Western countries are supporting Ukraine by supplying weapons and other aid.

Two unnamed sources allegedly close to the Kremlin explained to Meduza what they believe is the simple reason Russian President Vladimir Putin's administration wants this type of coverage:

If the offensive is a failure, [the Russian authorities] will be able to say that [Russia’s] army adeptly repelled an extremely powerful attack. The value of this victory will increase significantly.

If Ukraine, with the help of weapons from the U.S. and Europe, is successful and takes territory, the loss will be explainable, too; after all, the West has focused a tremendous amount of effort on the front, but its successes — when compared to those efforts — have been very modest. In other words, overall, the Russian army has held its own.

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The Kremlin could be expecting 'Ukrainian successes'

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) think tank wrote in its latest update that, if the leaked guidelines are real, it 'suggests the Kremlin is preparing for – if not expecting – Ukrainian successes and is planning to mitigate demoralization in the Russian information space'.

ISW analysts added that the document represents:

An important Russian adaptation from previous Ukrainian counteroffensives in Kherson and Kharkiv, which produced dramatic shocks and demoralization in both the Russian military and the Russian information space that the Kremlin likely seeks to mitigate.

Read more ⋙ Vladimir Putin allegedly survives attack by Ukraine, claims German report: Here's what we know

Victory Day celebrations cancelled in Russia

It comes as Victory Day celebrations are being cancelled across Russia, which Russian authorities say is due to security fears, after they accused Ukraine of attempting to assassinate Putin. However, some critics believe Putin actually fears the celebrations could be used as an opportunity for Russians to express dissent against the war.

Dmitry Kolezev, a journalist and editor of a liberal news website, claimed people would have:

Almost certainly come to the Immortal Regiment with portraits of those who died in Ukraine, and the number of recent photographs may turn out to be depressingly large.

Sources used:

Meduza: '‘If Ukraine succeeds, it should be explainable’ How Moscow is instructing Russian propaganda outlets to cover Kyiv’s looming counteroffensive'

New York Post: 'Putin unveils manual on how to prepare Russians for defeat in Ukraine'

Institute for the Study of War: 'Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 2, 2023'

Express: 'Putin scrambles to quell dissent as Russia cancels Victory Day celebrations over security'