Vladimir Putin's reign may continue despite losses in Ukraine, researcher claims

For weeks now reports have suggested that Vladimir Putin’s army has faced embarrassing defeats in Ukraine and his regime could be soon toppled in case he will lose the war.

In an article for Foreign Affairs, John Mueller who is an Adjunct Professor of Political Science and Woody Hayes Senior Research Scientist at Ohio State University agrees that Putin’s war in Ukraine will go down in history as a debacle.

Overestimating Putin’s chances of being ousted

However, Muellercontests the recent reports that Putin’s reign would be soon over due to a military setback. He writes:

‘History suggests that his [Vladimir Putin’s] prospects for survival are significantly better than is generally assumed. In fact, in recent decades, even leaders who have suffered spectacular military setbacks have often not been removed from power, whether by popular rebellion or by elite insider coup.’

Additionally, Mueller believes that Putinmay stay in power long after, and would likely escalate further the war without fear of it impacting his political reign, Newsweek reports.

The EU is leading the way in the effort to punish Russia

In most recent news, the West has signalled the formation of a special tribunal to try Russian crimes in Ukraine, and especially to prosecute Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Ursula von der Leyen, the President of the European Commission, through a video message on Wednesday (30 November), has said the EU would work with the international community to initialise a special tribunal to try Russian crimes in Ukraine, Newsweek reports.

She said:

We are ready to start working with the international community to get the broadest international support possible for this specialized court.

Russia must pay for its horrific crimes, including for its crime of aggression against a sovereign state.

Sources used:

-Newsweek: ‘EU Seeks Special Tribunal to Indict Putin For War Crimes’

-Foreign Affairs: ‘Why Putin May Endure’
-Newsweek: ‘The West Is Overestimating Putin's Fear of Losing Power, Researcher Warns’