Vladimir Putin’s arrest warrant comes with a worrying risk as expert reveals it could ‘isolate’ the leader

The International Criminal Court in Hague (ICC) made a strong move to bring Russian President Vladimir Putin to justice. But what the arrest warrant really means for Vladimir Putin and how could it affect the war in Ukraine? The experts warn that it could negatively impact any diplomatic effort to end the conflict.

What is Vladimir Putin charged with?

In a statement, the ICC issued the warrant making it possible to arrest Vladimir Putin and Maria Alekseyevna Lvova-Belova, Russia's commissioner for children's rights on suspicion of unlawful deportation of children and unlawful transfer of people from the territory of Ukraine to Russia.

Legal commentator Joshua Rozenberg points out that it is a relatively minor charge compared with what the Russian leader has been responsible for throughout the war but that it was ‘the most practical’ one the ICC has chosen to bring public attention at the moment.

The bold legal move will obligate the Court's 123 member states to arrest the Russian president and transfer him to The Hague for trial if he sets foot on their territory.

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Moscow has denied allegations.

Russian foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said:

The decisions of the International Criminal Court have no meaning for our country, including from a legal point of view.

Russia is not a party to the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court and bears no obligations under it.

According to Rozenberg, Vladimir Putin is ‘not going to stand trial unless he is arrested - and he's not going to be arrested while he remains running Russia’. The same applies to Ms Lvova-Belova.

This could make things worse

While the move by ICC is welcomed around the world, experts worry about what it could mean for the war in Ukraine that has been devastating the country in the past 13 months.

According to military analyst Sean Bell, the arrest warrant risks obstructing any off-ramp Vladimir Putin could use to end the war. He believes that it is hard to see how he would come to the negotiating table if, at the end of it, he was going to face trial.

Bell added:

Anything that further isolates Putin's position has a risk - it risks him doubling down and focusing his determination to continue this conflict.

It doesn't seem to me that this is going to help bring the war to an end anytime soon.

Sky News' international affairs editor Dominic Waghorn agrees that the warrant can make finding a diplomatic solution far more problematic.

Rozenberg thinks that it is a ‘matter for the United Nations’ whether the ICC charges could result in Vladimir Putin being further isolated, along with the removal of Russia from the Security Council.

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Sources used:

- Sky News: 'What the arrest warrant really means for Putin - and how could it affect the war?'