US General predicts war with China in two years in leaked memo: 'My gut tells me we will fight'

A memo has been leaked by US Air Force General Michael A. Minihan with a stark warning to the officers under his command about the possibility of war between the United States and China in 2025.

US and China 'will fight in 2025'

Minihan is the head of Air Mobility Command (AMC), overseeing the service’s fleet of transport and refuelling aircraft. In the memo obtained by NBC News with the subject line 'February 2023 Orders in Preparation for — The Next Fight',he predicts war with China in two years. He wrote:

I hope I am wrong. My gut tells me we will fight in 2025. Xi secured his third term and set his war council in October 2022. Taiwan’s presidential elections are in 2024 and will offer Xi a reason. United States’ presidential elections are in 2024 and will offer Xi a distracted America. Xi’s team, reason, and opportunity are all aligned for 2025.

Minihan then instructs all AMC personnel to 'fire a clip into a 7-meter target with the full understanding that unrepentant lethality matters most. Aim for the head.'

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General tells officers to 'defeat China'

Minihan tells the troops to start preparing, recommending all personnel reporting to him 'consider their personal affairs.' In terms of their training, he wrote:

Go faster. Drive readiness, integration, and agility for ourselves and the Joint Force to deter, and if required, defeat China.

Run deliberately, not recklessly. If you are comfortable in your approach to training, then you are not taking enough risk.

The memo was sent to the troops on Friday 27 January, however it was dated 1 February. An Air Force spokeswoman, Major Hope Cronin, verified the memo is real, writing in a statement:

This is an authentic internal memo from General Minihan addressed to his subordinate command teams.

Sources used:

- NBC News: 'Air Force general predicts war with China in 2025, tells officers to prep by firing 'a clip' at a target, and 'aim for the head''

- Washington Post: 'U.S. general warns troops that war with China is possible in two years'

- Air and Space Forces Magazine: 'Read for Yourself: The Full Memo from AMC Gen. Mike Minihan'