Russia 'quietly' facing another crisis due to war and it will have serious consequences for the country

Already struggling on the battlefield, with talks of a civil war in the country, and President Vladimir Putin being killed or overthrown, Russia is now facing another crisis - a declining population.

'No men, no children': Declining birth rate in Russia

Following Putin’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, hundreds and thousands of working age Russians have either fled the country or died on the battlefield. Ukraine says its troops have killed over 100,000 Russians, while the Kremlin claims its more like 10,000.

While the numbers are disputed, it's clear Russia is facing a demographic crisis that will make it difficult to sustain the war and, in the long term, keep its struggling economy afloat. As reported by The Telegraph, the high number of men dying in the conflict and immigrating outside of Russia will lead to tens of thousands of fewer births and speed up an already declining birth rate.

Alexey Raksha, an independent Russian demographer, says that while the number of losses on the battlefield may not seem like much for a country with a population of 145 million people, he believes the war will have a profound impact on an already fragile economy. He said:

If there are no soldiers, it means there are no men. No men, no sex. No sex, no children. It's very simple. But we also don't know what the psychological impact is going to be on these people, which will also cause the number of births to decline.

Experts believe there could be less than 1.2 million births in 2023 if the war continues in the coming months. Igor Efremov, a researcher at the Gaidar Institute in Moscow says this would be the lowest in modern history.

In addition to the number of casualties and qualified and experienced Russians leaving the country, thousands of Russian women have also been travelling abroad to give birth. Russians have been seeking refuge as far away as Argentina and the US, in addition to Kazakhstan, Turkey, Georgia, and Armenia.

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Russians fleeing, Ukrainians seeking refuge

However, a lot of Ukrainians have also moved to Russia, sometimes forcibly, during the war. Russian demographer Raksha, who recently left Moscow himself, said:

On the face of it, things are not that bad, because compared with the 800,000 or so people who have left the country fleeing from the war, Russia has also taken in around one million Ukrainians. But the age, sex and educational structure of those who emigrated and those who immigrated are completely different.

So mostly young, educated, high-earning men left the country and mostly women with children and elderly people came to the country as refugees from the war.

As a result, Raksha said:

While overall migration could be positive, we don't know by how much. But we do know that the economic impact will be very negative because of the number of young people who have left, and continue for decades to come.

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'Kidnapping' Ukrainian children a solution?

Some believe that Putin is attempting to solve this demographic issue by 'kidnapping' Ukrainian children.

According to The Geopolitics, Russian troops have been gradually deporting Ukrainian children, whose parents are either dead or missing, from occupied regions to Russia directly for adoption.

Indeed, in December 2022, Ukraine said that 13,000 children had been deported to Russia, and that this was not likely the 'final figure'.

In spring 2022, it was reported that Russia opened filtration camps to get rid of potential dissidents in occupied territories such as Mariupol and indoctrinate civilians to believe that they now live in 'Russia forever'. It is at these filtration camps where the Kremlin's policies of 'Russification and cultural genocide' play out.

The Kremlin calls its deportation policies a 'relocation' for 'their safety'. However, in a report published in November 2022, Amnesty International said:

Russian authorities forcibly transferred and deported civilians from occupied areas of Ukraine in what amounted to war crimes and likely crimes against humanity.

Sources used:

The Telegraph: 'Russia stares into population abyss as Putin sends its young men to die'

The Geopolitics: 'Putin’s Demographic Solution is Kidnapping Ukrainian Children'

France24: 'Mother Russia: Maria Lvova-Belova, the Putin ally deporting Ukrainian children'