Risk of yet another conflict, this time between two of NATO's largest militaries, is growing

Tension between Greece and Turkey is growing, sparking fears of open conflict between the two countries. Relations between the two neighbours have often been turbulent but are particularly fraught at the moment and being members of NATO has done little to change that.

Greece and Turkey are two of NATO’s oldest members and things have gotten heated recently because of the Libyan energy pact that Turkey signed back on 3 October, with Ankara’s ambassador to Athens warning recently ‘things can get out of control very quickly’, in a report by Politico.

Energy pact

The situation became complicated when Turkey signed a preliminary agreement with Libya's Tripoli government to search for oil and gas off the Libyan coast without being clear their pursuit could take place in waters south of Greece, where Athens says Turkey is not permitted to explore.

This comes after Turkey had signed a deal back in 2019 with one of two rival governments in Libya to demarcate new maritime boundaries in the East Med. The proposed lines however, were seen as a sea grab by Greece and Cyprus and the EU described the deal as violating the law of the sea and an infringement on sovereign rights, as per Politico.

Ongoing tensions

Both countries have been investing heavily in military equipment, with Greece being one of the few countries in NATO to maintain defense spending above 2% of GDP, as per Business Insider.

But recently rhetoric has been escalating to worrying levels after Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan warned that his forces could 'come down suddenly one night’, in a report by Politico

Greece has been responding with even more military investment including, as per Business Insider:

Plans to buy seven MH-60R anti-submarine warfare helicopters, and it has installed a version of Israel's Iron Dome over its eastern Aegean islands. The system is tailored to counter Turkey's large drone fleet.

The international community is hoping things will calm down and happily both sides have shown a willingness to resolve things via dialogue with arbitration being possible at the International Court of Justice in the Hague.

Sources used:

- Business Insider 'Rising tensions between 2 of NATO's biggest militaries are driving fears of the first war between alliance members'

- Politico'Libyan energy pact ramps up risks of Turkey-Greece conflict'