‘Major war’ may break out between these two countries in less than 5 years, here’s what we know

Taiwan’s foreign minister Joseph Wu has announced that he believes China is ‘more likely’ to invade Taiwan now, in order to shift attention away from the country’s domestic problems.

Speaking in a recent interview, Wu predicted that 2027 would be a likely year for China to proceed with military action on the island as President Xi Jinping would like to end his time in office with some kind of big ‘achievement’, as per Sky News.

Fighter jets

The statement comes at a time when tensions are running high as China continues to fly fighter jets around Taiwan’s airspace on a daily basis. The Chinese fighter jets are frequently crossing the 'median line' – the unofficial maritime border – with the number increasing five-fold from 2020 to 2022 and its daily count peaking three weeks ago.

Wu went on to explain how volatile the situation is with just the slightest mistake having the potential to trigger a full-scale war.

Look at the proximity of the Chinese aircraft to our aircraft. If they cross the 24 nautical miles zone, some of our weapons systems might have to target those Chinese aircraft, and that might spark an accident, even though it might not be intentional for the Chinese pilots to cross the 24 nautical miles.

Very often, you see the sum of a tiny little accident might spark into a major war. Our pilots are very well-trained; they know they cannot fire the first shot.

‘People are not happy’

Wu described how the unsettled situation in China is a factor in how and when tensions could escalate, predicting 2027 as a possible year for an invasion, as per Sky News:

To me, 2027 is the year that we need to watch out for. In 2027, Xi Jinping is likely to go into his fourth term, and, if in his previous three terms he cannot claim any achievement during his office, he might need to think about something else for him to claim as his achievement or his legacy.

The Chinese economy has been slowing recently; there has been a decline in real estate business; and the country is finding its feet again after Covid-19 so people are frustrated, Wu explained:

If you look at the Chinese situation right now, the economy is going down. People are not happy, the real estate business seems to be melting down.

Self-governed Taiwan lives under the constant threat of invasion by China, which claims the island as a part of its territory. China has been increasing military, diplomatic and economic pressure on the island since the 2016 election and has stated that any Taiwanese move towards a declaration of formal independence will prompt a military response, as per The Guardian.

Sources used:

- Sky News 'China 'more likely' to invade Taiwan - and attack could come in 2027, island's foreign minister Joseph Wu warns'

- The Guardian 'Don’t appease China, warns Taiwan’s likely presidential successor'