International expert warns 'proxy conflict' could break out as thousands of Wagner troops cross border

Nearly two weeks ago Wagner Group fighters attempted a rebellion following a bitter feud between Vladimir Putin’s ally Yevgeny Prigozhin and Russian Army's top brass.

Although the mutiny failed, with ‘traitors’ stopping 200 kilometres from Moscow, it hit right where it hurts most - the Kremlin leader’s ability to control everything in his country.

The conflict saw ‘weakened’ Vladimir Putin 'nervously’ address the nation and let his ‘chef’ Prigozhin get away unscratched.

As a result, Wagner's chief has been exiled to Belarus which is often called Putin’s puppet state. And he didn’t go there alone but with an 8,000-strong army of ‘professional killers’ recruited straight from the Russian prisons - the situation that makes Belarus’s neighbours Latvia, Lithuania and Poland incredibly concerned.

Experts now warn that a new ‘proxy war’ could be orchestrated by the Kremlin in one of NATO countries in Eastern Europe. Here is what they say.

Meanwhile, Vladimir Putin could be facing another revolt as one paramilitary group vowed to take him down.

Here is what the ‘proxy war’ is and where it could start

As 8,000 Wagner troops crossed into Belarus together with their chief Yevgeny Prigozhin, neighbouring countries are worrying about the impact they could make on their security.

Latvia, Lithuania and Poland were warned that one of them could become a ground for a ‘proxy war’ - the situation where Belarus will fight on behalf of Russia, with an Eastern European state next door having to fight for the West's cause.

Experts agree that the war could spill way beyond Ukraine as Prigozhin’s fighters - a lot of them convicted criminals recruited straight from Russian prisons - were given all the opportunities to train in Belarus, a dictatorship controlled by its ‘forever leader’ Alexander Lukashenko and often called as Vladimir Putin’s ‘puppet state’.

Mykola Volkivskyi, Former Advisor to the Chairman of the Committee of the Ukrainian Parliament, predicted that a proxy conflict will likely be between Poland and Belarus, with an outpouring on Polish territory.

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Latvia: ‘We keep a very wary eye on everything that occurs in Belarus’

Next week 31 members of the transatlantic military alliance are holding a NATO summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, just 30 km from Belarus, to discuss defences against new threats.

Minsk has previously been accused of weaponising its border with EU, and the presence of Wagner ‘serial killers’ next to it are expected to be one of the summit's topics.

Poland believes that the EU should pay to strengthen security at the border. Polish officials have just announced their decision to deploy additional police personnel to 398.6 kilometres-long stretch of landit shares with Belarus.

Latvia is also fearing the havoc Wagner's mercenaries could bring and has already reached out to NATO for extra support.

Latvian Prime Minister Arturs Krišjānis Kariņš said:

We keep a very wary eye on everything that occurs in Belarus with [Wagner chief Yevgeny] Prigozhin there and an unknown number of very trained and skilled fighters who presumably will be joining him.

He believes that the threat they pose ‘would probably not be a frontal military’ but an ‘infiltration into Europe for unknown purposes’.

Lithuanian president Gitanas Nausėda is also uneasy about the Wagner situation.

He urged NATO to ‘take bold decisions on the strengthening of (its) eastern flank’.

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Sources used:

- Mirror: 'Europe set for 'a proxy war,' warns expert, as '8,000 soldiers' cross border'

- Euronews: 'Latvia, Lithuania & Poland concerned about risk of Wagner 'serial killers' in neighbouring Belarus'