Hospitalisations are rising but scientist claims pandemic could be over by October

The same professor whose work was instrumental in the very first lockdown in March 2020 has now made a bold claim that the coronavirus pandemic in the UK would largely be over by October.

Success of vaccination programme

Professor Neil Ferguson, member of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE), also known as Professor Lockdown, has said that the vaccination programme has ‘fundamentally changed the equation.’ He told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme:

The effect of vaccines has been huge in reducing the risk of hospitalisation and death and I’m positive that by late September/October time we will be looking back at most of the pandemic.

We will still have COVID with us, we will still have people dying from COVID but we will have put the bulk of the pandemic behind us.

Not out of the woods

Yesterday, daily cases dropped from 24,855 on Monday to 23,511. Despite the falling numbers, Ferguson—like many other experts and government officials—agrees that the UK is not completely ‘out of the woods’ yet as cases may start spiking once again during the back to school season and the colder months. He added:

We need to remain cautious, especially with the potential increase in contact rates again as the weather becomes less fine and schools return.

We’re not completely out of the woods, but the equation has fundamentally changed.

Increase in hospital admissions

And while the number of positive cases per day have been on a decline, hospital admissions have been rising, leaving the NHS as overwhelmed as it was in January 2021. On Monday, there was a 33% augmentation in admissions as a total of 5,055 COVID patients were in the hospital. NHS providers said in a letter to PM Boris Johnson:

Many trust chief executives are saying that the overall level of pressure they are now experiencing is, although very different in shape, similar to the pressure they saw in January of this year when the NHS was under the greatest pressure in a generation.